As part of my Monday morning ritual, I check the weather forecast for the hikes, trips and classes we have in the week ahead. It may be the most frustrating thing I do all week. What I have discovered, though, is there’s a whole lot more to deciding whether to proceed or pull the plug than simply checking the chance of bad weather.

Here’s a look at the process I’ve developed, using as an example a backpacking trip coming up this weekend.

Consider the event and the location. This weekend, we have a GetBackpacking! trip to Linville Gorge. It’s an Intermediate Skills class, focusing on water crossings and navigating a designated Wilderness Area, where trails are rarely marked or maintained. 

Know the hikers. These backpackers have previous backpacking experience and decent gear. Their previous experience means they’ve probably been through less-than-perfect weather and are equipped — both mentally and gear-wise — to deal with the elements. 

Know the area. Certain areas — Linville, Grandfather Mountain and Mount Rogers in Virginia, in particular — are notorious for generating their own weather. So while you may have a fairly benign forecast for a region, keep in mind that it might not apply if you’re headed into a meteorological anomaly. 

Check the source. When I’m checking several forecasts simultaneously on my Monday survey, I stick with one source. My go-to is the 10-day forecast on  WeatherUnderground.com. If the event is four or more days out, I just try to get a general feel for what the weather is looking like. This time of year, I look to see if a pattern of rain and thunderstorms is developing. Rain isn’t necessarily a deal-breaker; electrical storms are. On Monday, my Linville Gorge check for Friday, Saturday and Sunday were dominated by a gray cloud, a thick lightening bolt and daggers of rain — 70 percent chance each day, in fact. Time to panic? Not just yet.

Bore in. If I see something worrisome, I’ll switch from my overall source to a source more focused on our destination. For the central and northern mountains of North Carolina, I rely on Ray’s Weather out of Boone. Ray’s was begun as a hobby in the 1990s by Dr. Ray Russell, a computer science professor at Appalachian State. It’s evolved into a source that marries modern forecasting models with local knowledge of mountain weather. Ray’s forecast for Linville rang true with typical summer weather patterns: partly cloudy with widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. This suggests that we should hike early in the day and have camp set up by mid-afternoon. (For mountain trips, I’ll bore up as well, using a source such as mountain-forecast.com. But, for this Linville trip, it won’t be helpful). 

Have patience. The reason I don’t start checking the forecast until five days out at the earliest stems from a four-day winter trip on the Appalachian Trail three years ago. On that trip, I started checking 10 days out, at which point 4 to 6 inches of snow was forecast, as were overnight lows in the upper teens. The next day, the snow forecast total had jumped to 12 inches and the overnight lows had dropped into the mid-teens. Over the next three days the forecast called for as much as 18 inches and the overnight low dropping to 7. Twice I was a mouse-click away from canceling the trip. Then, two days before the trip, the forecast backed off to about three inches. We did the trip and awoke the last morning to just an inch of snow, which made for a gorgeous hike out.

Check the radar. One of the last things I do, usually two to three hours before an event, is check the radar. I check for splotches of green, yellow, orange and especially purple, and I click the one-hour replay to see if the splotches are advancing toward our hike. One caveat: in summer, heat convection can cause stormy cells to pop up out of nowhere; just because weather wasn’t headed your way an hour ago doesn’t mean it isn’t now. Those wicked afternoon storms may cause me to cancel an after-work hike, but often it won’t bring an end to a weekend backpacking trip. 

Make the call. You may think that there’s nothing worse than canceling an outing because the weather looked bad, and it turns out to be lovely. What’s worse is rolling the dice, saying what the heck, forging ahead — and running headlong into trouble. 

All it takes is one bad guess to convince you. Play it safe.

The post Check the forecast — and know what to do with it appeared first on GetGoing NC!.

“I could stand it a little colder,” Jenny said as we took a short break hiking the Buckquarter Creek Trail at Eno River State Park, our first GetHiking! Winter Program for Beginners hike. Her fellow sun-drenched hikers nodded.

Now, I love hiking in winter: I love throwing on layers, then peeling them off as I warm up; I love seeing my breath; I love steam pouring off my head when pull off my wool cap. But I was surprised that so many people new to hiking were ready for more of a nip in the air. I associate new hikers with spring and its allure of wildflowers and touch of warmth, and fall, for its color and retreat from summer’s stifling heat. And so it was wonderful to see that they are ready to embrace winter’s subtle charms. Here in the Southeast, especially, winter offers these delights:

The light. Here’s a paradox: It’s the coldest time of the year, yet the time when we’re nearest the sun. On a cloudless day, the sun is more brilliant than it is in July. And in a forest without leaves, you can appreciate the sun’s brilliance all the more. During the week, you go into work as the sun is coming up and you go home around the time it sets, so the weekend allows for full appreciation of this burst of sunlight.

The quiet. It’s quiet — and it’s not. In winter there’s less wildlife chatter, fewer noisy people in the woods. And while hibernation isn’t a practice in these parts, there’s less foraging going on. The noise you can is hear from a  distance, because dry winter air acts as a transmitter that’s especially effective in the absence of sound-muffling leaves. Stand still and just listen.

The views. On Sunday’s hike, we followed a ridge above the Eno for three-quarters of a mile. In summer, you have no idea there’s a river below. On Sunday, we stood and watched the rain-swollen Eno course its way through a series of boulder fields, and listened to the dull roar of a river made too big for its banks. The elevated vantage point was almost better than walking along the banks.

The honesty. In summer, we stick to the trail because who knows what lurks beyond: slithery creatures on the other side of a log, poisonous vines concealed in an ankle-high carpet of green. In winter, there are few surprises. For one, those slithery creatures aren’t likely to be out until the temperature climbs into the upper 60s and those itch-inducing leaves are in remission (though keep an eye out for fuzzy vines curling up tree trunks). The winter woods are open, the threats are minimal.

The bugs. There are few, reason enough to love winter in the woods.

The promise. Winter gets a bad rap because it’s viewed as down time. This is especially true if you’ve migrated to the Southeast from the North or Midwest and are used to winter starting in mid-November and lingering through March. But here, winter soon reveals harbingers of spring. In late January, the first warm rain of the season queues a chorus of spring peepers. In early February, the woods start sprouting their first clusters of daffodils, a hardy ornamental planted by early homesteaders to brighten their lives. Then, in mid- to late-February come pairs of mottled green leaves poking through the leaf litter that soon give way to the delicate yellow and purple petals of the trout lily.

It may only be the second week of January, and just the third week of winter, but already, before the first peeper has spoken, we’re already getting nostalgic for the cold. Enjoy it while you can.

Happy trails,

Joe

Let us help you enjoy the season!

For a rundown of our winter hiking (and backpacking) programs, go here.

For our weekly GetHiking! hikes in North Carolina and Virginia, go here.

The post Warm up to the Cold  appeared first on GetGoing NC!.

Thus began the evaluation process we go through when deciding whether the weather will affect a planned hike. It’s a process that goes something like this:

• Check the forecast. I started following the forecast for Tuesday night a week ago. There was a suggestion of weekend snow at the time, though, as is often the case with snow, the amounts were vague, as were the locations to be affected. Usually for a day hike, I don’t start checking the forecast until two or three days out; for overnight trips, I begin checking about a week in advance to get a general idea of what might be coming. Three days out I will take a second, more serious look. If it appears weather could be an issue, I’ll …
• Consider the nature of the trip and who’s on it. The Tuesday Night Hike roster is a mix of experienced and less-so hikers. A decision about whether to hike in this case is complicated by the fact that the hike is at night, and not all the hikers — even the experienced ones — are as comfortable hiking under the lights. In general, if it’s an entry level trip I’ll judge the weather with a more critical eye for two reasons: 1) these are beginners, just starting out and might not have the gear to deal with rain, with cold or less- than-ideal conditions; 2) We want beginners to have a good first experience. You do an overnight trip with daytime temperatures around 70, overnight lows around 50 and clear skies, and who isn’t going to want to come back? On the other hand, if it’s an experienced group, we’re more likely to proceed if the weather isn’t optimal. About the only two things that will scuttle a trip for experienced folks is extreme cold (15 F or less) and a high likelihood of electrical storms.
• Revisit the forecast three days out. Three days, because if the weather looks convincingly grim, this is when you need to begin alerting people that the hike may not happen, less so for a shorter day hike, but certainly for an overnight trip that people have to make plans in advance for, like canceling a pet sitter. I usually don’t make a final call this far out, but will let people know that the trip is in jeopardy and when we will let them know if it’s still on. In the  case of our Tuesday Night Hike, on Saturday, milk, bread and eggs were flying off the shelf as the forecasters were growing more certain of snow, and lots of it.
• Revisit the forecast a day out. On Monday, it was less the forecast for Tuesday night and more the reality of the day. I wasn’t sure how much snow had fallen at the trailhead, but it was likely between 8 and 13 inches. The forecast called for some warming Monday and afternoon and Tuesday, but refreezing overnight: this snow wasn’t going anywhere soon. And what did melt was likely to turn to ice once the sun set. Usually, we’ll wait until the day before, at the earliest, to call a hike. Much can change in a forecast, which is why we sometimes will wait up until three hours before a hike to make a final call (in such cases, that’s often because we’re waiting to see what the weather radar, the final arbiter, indicates). A day out is when we start to consider our four cancellation factors: 
  • Cancellation factor I: Cold. We usually don’t cancel a hike because of extreme cold, but we will let people who have signed up know what kind of gear they will need to survive — yes, survive — a very cold hike.
  • Cancellation factor II: Rain. I personally love hiking in the rain, even a sustained rain. But then, I’ve got the gear for it. A forecast that looks reliably wet warrants an email to those who’ve signed up as to the rain gear they will need if they don’t want to wind up damp and dour.
  • Cancellation factor III: Road conditions. This is a big one. If just getting to the trailhead could be treacherous, we’ll cancel a hike.
  • Cancellation factor IV: Trail conditions. This is more a question of what’s going on in the days preceding a hike. For instance, if we see monsoon rains the week leading up to a hike, but a big smiling sun the day of the hike, we aren’t automatically going ahead with the hike. This is where a hike leader’s knowledge of the trail is key: Are there lots of low spots? Rock-hop creek crossings that may be running high? Places where the trail runs alongside a lake or creek? If the hike leader isn’t intimately familiar with the trail, then he/she should get the opinion of someone who is.

Using the above criteria, here’s the decision we came to regarding our Tuesday Night Hike. The temperature was looking favorable, topping 40 the afternoon of the hike, then staying above freezing until hike’s end, at about 8:30 p.m. However, the hike was in a bit of a snowfall-reporting no man’s land, somewhere between our 13 inches and RDU’s 7. With sunny skies and above-freezing temperatures, that meant some melt, but a fair amount of snow likely remaining. Slushy trails, basically. While the temperature appeared to be staying above freezing, it wasn’t by much. With the rural roads leading to the trailhead rimmed by shade-casting trees, icy spots on the drive home remain a possibility.

Still undecided, I put out a call on our GetGoingNC Facebook page for input from folks living near the trailhead. Our friend Carrie Bonds hooked us up with about the most knowledgable source on things MST that we could imagine, Jeff Brewer, a former Friends of the MST President and a longtime overseer of trail maintenance and construction. “I would postpone the hike if I were in charge,” Jeff responded. So we have. 

Now, we turn our attention to Saturday’s hike on the coastal Weetock Trail, where Weather Underground tells us to expect rain beginning Friday afternoon and lasting into Saturday. How much rain they don’t say, and frankly, three days out, we aren’t concerned.

At least we won’t be until tomorrow.

Happy Trails,

Joe

Join us

Learn more about the trips mentioned today: 

• GetHiking! Tuesday Night Hikes series here.
• GetOriented! Finding Your Way on the Weetock Trail, here.

Check out our GetGoingNC Facebook page and follow us, here.

The post To hike, or not to hike appeared first on GetGoing NC!.

Here’s a look at the process I’ve developed, using as an example a backpacking trip coming up this weekend.

Consider the event and the location. This weekend, we have a GetBackpacking! trip to Linville Gorge. It’s an Intermediate Skills class, focusing on water crossings and navigating a designated Wilderness Area, where trails are rarely marked or maintained. 

Know the hikers. These backpackers have previous backpacking experience and decent gear. Their previous experience means they’ve probably been through less-than-perfect weather and are equipped — both mentally and gear-wise — to deal with the elements. 

Know the area. Certain areas — Linville, Grandfather Mountain and Mount Rogers in Virginia, in particular — are notorious for generating their own weather. So while you may have a fairly benign forecast for a region, keep in mind that it might not apply if you’re headed into a meteorological anomaly. 

Check the source. When I’m checking several forecasts simultaneously on my Monday survey, I stick with one source. My go-to is the ten-day forecast on  WeatherUnderground.com. If the event is four or more days out, I just try to get a general feel for what the weather is looking like. This time of year, I look to see if a pattern of rain and thunderstorms is developing. Rain isn’t necessarily a deal-breaker; electrical storms are. On Monday, my Linville Gorge check for Friday, Saturday and Sunday were dominated by a gray cloud, a thick lightening bolt and daggers of rain — 70 percent chance each day, in fact. Time to panic? Not just yet.

Bore in. If I see something worrisome, I’ll switch from my overall source to a source more focused on our destination. For the central and northern mountains of North Carolina, I rely on Ray’s Weather out of Boone. Ray’s was begun in the 1990s by Dr. Ray Russell, a computer science professor at Appalachian State, as a hobby. It’s evolved into a source that marries modern forecasting models with local knowledge of mountain weather. Ray’s forecast for Linville rang true with typical summer weather patterns: partly cloudy with widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. This suggests that we should hike early in the day and have camp set up by mid-afternoon. (For mountain trips, I’ll bore up as well, using a source such as mountain-forecast.com. But, for this Linville trip, it won’t be helpful). 

Have patience. The reason I don’t start checking the forecast until five days out at the earliest stems from a four-day winter trip on the Appalachian Trail three years ago. On that trip, I started checking 10 days out, at which point 4 to 6 inches of snow was forecast, as were overnight lows in the upper teens. The next day, the snow forecast total had jumped to 12 inches and the overnight lows had dropped into the mid-teens. Over the next three days the forecast called for as much as 18 inches and the overnight low dropping to 7. Twice I was a mouse-click away from canceling the trip. Then, two days before the trip, the forecast backed off to about three inches. We did the trip and awoke the last morning to just an inch of snow, which made for a gorgeous hike out.

Check the radar. One of the last things I do, usually two to three hours before an event, is check the radar. I check for splotches of green, yellow, orange and especially purple, and I click the one-hour replay to see if the splotches are advancing toward our hike. One caveat: in summer, heat convection can cause stormy cells to pop up out of nowhere; just because weather wasn’t headed your way an hour ago doesn’t mean it isn’t now. Those wicked afternoon storms may cause me to cancel an after-work hike, but often it won’t bring an end to a weekend backpacking trip. 

Make the call. You may think that there’s nothing worse than canceling an outing because the weather looked bad, and then it’s just lovely out. What’s worse, though, is rolling the dice, saying what the heck, forging ahead — and running headlong into trouble. 

All it takes is one bad guess to convince you. Play it safe.

Happy trails,

Joe

Weekend weather

So, what’s the weather look like for this weekend’s GetHiking! and GetBackpacking! events (as of Wednesday)?

GetHiking! Charlottesville

Thursday, 9 a.m. Old Rag Summit Scramble, Shenandoah National Park: High of 88, partly cloudy, slight chance of afternoon rain.

Saturday, all day. North River Gorge, Todd Lake Recreation Area, George Washington National Forest: High off 77, chance of scattered thunderstorms throughout the day. 

Saturday, 10 a.m. – 4 p.m. Campbell Falls, MP 13.1 Blue Ridge Parkway (Lyndhurst): High of 79, chance of scattered thunderstorms throughout the day.

Sunday, 4-10 p.m. Fortune’s Cove Preserve, Lovingston: High of 83, chance of isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.

GetBackpacking!

Friday – Sunday, Linville Gorge: Highs around 70, overnight lows around 60, with scattered thunderstorms possible in the afternoon.

A forecast blown

It was the perfect day for a hike that didn’t happen. Read about the disappointment of A Forecast Blown.

The post Making sense of a weather forecast appeared first on GetGoing NC!.

Today’s 90-Second Escape: A Year Ago

Care to feel even better about our current run of warm weather? On this last day of February, as we bask in sun and 70-degree temps, such was not the case on the last day of February a year ago. Check out this 90 Second reminder.

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